Wednesday, July 18, 2007

Economic Growth Expected to Slow...Government Growth Must Also

The annual "Virginia Economic Forecast" published by the Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy points to a slowing economy nationally as well as here in Virginia.

This follows a pretty robust economic expansion over the past few years which could not be maintained. No recession is forecast, just slower growth.

This annual economic forecast is researched and written by the state's most respected group of economic analysts at Chmura Economics and Analytics. Past reports have been very accurate over the eight years that this forecast has been published. It is available online at

The cooling of the housing industry is the main cause for the slowing economy, and will remain so over the next year. The biggest question mark on the horizon, other than increased hostilities in the Middle East, is the volatility of oil prices.

If the Iraq war does not worsen, and the price of oil remains about $60 a barrel, then the national and state economies will remain moving forward - just at a slower clip than in the past few years.

The implications on public policy are quite apparent. The growth of state and local governments must slow down as the economy slows.

Read the full story here.


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