Friday, July 14, 2006

So let's talk transportation

Below is an email I received from Barbara Reese at VDOT. In it she lays out the financial projection in needs(wants) and revenues.

Since we will be discussing transportation, I thought that we should start with some of the basics and then get into other areas. As we are talking about a potential level of expenditure in the $200 BILLION dollar range over the next 20 years, this might be a good place to save some money.

Delegate Saxman:

The unmet need is calculated as follows in the VTRAN 2025 report:

Transportation needs for the 2005-2025 period are expected to exceed $203 billion. Best estimates of revenues are $95 billion, resulting in unmet needs of approximately $108 billion. (203 - 95 = 108)

Of that $108 billion in needs, the breakdown is as follows:

$74.2 billion - highways
$30.7 billion - rail/public transportation
$3.1 billion - aviation
$0.4 billion - ports

What I sent this morning as I understood your question was if the Senate or Governor's package were approved, what share of this total unmet need would be addressed?

If you assume $1 billion X 20 years (with no revenue growth), you would collect $20 billion. The figures I cited do grow the revenues by 2.71% compounded. As a result, for $1 billion in year 1 X 20 years X 2.71% compounded, the estimate is $26.1 billion.

In addition, I have assumed the nationally recognized studies' estimate that 20 percent of the unmet needs can be addressed thru tolls, bonds, and other private sector participation.

So the calculation is as follows:

$108.4 billion in unfunded needs - $21.7 billion in tolls,bonds,private sector = $86.7 billion in unfunded needs

If you assume $1 billion a new revenue in year X 20 years X 2.71% compounded = $26.1 billion in new revenues to address the unfunded needs

$86.7 million - $26.1 billion = $60.6 billion remaining unfunded need.

In summary from the top:

$203 billion total need
- 95 billion in estimated revenues

= 108 billion in unfunded needs
- 21.7 billion from bonds, tolls, private sector

= $86.7 billion in unfunded needs that need public sector support

If you assume $1 billion a year in additional state revenue for transportation to address that need:

$ 86.7 billion
- 26.1 billion in new revenues over 20 years

= $60.6 billion remaining unmet need